Friday, May 09, 2008  BARACK OBAMA Or Ayers May Dance on Obama's Lapel I know I said posting would be light, but I just had to post this. First, the source of this one-liner: Larry C. Johnson, writing at the Huffington Post: We may now understand why Barack does not wear a flag lapel pin. He's afraid that Bill Ayers will stomp on him.
After 9/11, I thought that Johnson's horrifically-timed op-ed, the July 10, 2001, New York Times piece, "The Declining Terrorist Threat" was so spectacularly wrong he ought to never write again. I take it back. I'm genuinely envious of that line.
05/09 09:50 AM SOMETHING LIGHTER Almost Mid-May, and We (Almost) Have Two Nominees Traveling will take up much of today, so posting will be light... ...Happy Mother's Day to all the moms out there.
05/09 09:29 AM 
Thursday, May 08, 2008 HILLARY CLINTON, HORSERACE Hillary's In Until At Least June 3 Bill Clinton tells me Hillary Clinton is in until at least June 3, when South Dakota and Montana vote. Well, okay, it's not like he called me. But the latest e-mail sent in his name by the Hillary camp says, "We have to make every one of the next 27 days count — please act today!" I talked to a lot of people that day, and one thing was crystal clear — people want Hillary to stay in this race until every last voter has a say. That's why Hillary and I are working so hard. That's why we've made a deep commitment to keep campaigning, keep fighting, and keep winning.
She's not dropping out. She might as well fight on until at least Puerto Rico, and she could easily score one or two more wins in those last two states. (If she drops out, she almost certainly loses.) In the end, it doesn't make a huge difference if she drops out tomorrow or on June 4. Her strategy has to be to narrow the popular vote as much as possible, win as many states as possible, keep beating the drum on Florida and Michigan and at least have the argument that she would be a stronger general election candidate. She also can hope for some sort of unforced error on Obama's part. Bill Clinton also says, "I wish I could talk to every last person who has worked so hard for Hillary to thank you for everything you've done for her. You mean so much to both of us. She's still in this thing because of your hard work and your indomitable spirit." Don't thank me, Mr. President. Thank Rush Limbaugh. 05/08 03:51 PM JOHN MCCAIN A Potent Issue, With Less Contrast Than Would Be Ideal Gas prices get even higher, ensuring that oil and energy will be dominant issues in the campaign this summer. GatewayPundit has some great maps showing areas that are off-limits to offshore drilling. He writes, "Which party blocked drilling in ANWR?— Democrat", which is accurate, but we ought to note that (sigh) McCain opposes drilling in ANWR as well. McCain also describes himself as a "federalist" on offshore drilling (even though one poll suggested 75 percent of Alaskans support ANWR drilling) and a "let the locals decide" policy sounds like a formula to reinforce the Not In My Back Yard attitudes. Since clinching the nomination, McCain's campaign has been a series of tours - the foreign tour, the bio tour, the forgotten parts of America tour, the health care tour, the "see, I like conservatives" tour. May I recommend the "where gasoline comes from" tour? Day one, an area off-limits to drilling because of federal regulations. Day two, a refinery — one of those important structures that we haven't built in this country since 1976. Day three, a distribution plant, observing the Byzantine system of blend requirements in each state. Day four, the gas stations themselves, noting that 18 states don't have any oil refineries, meaning that all of their supply has to be transported from out of state. 05/08 02:44 PM BARACK OBAMA Will Any Revelation Prompt Obama to Rethink Summits With Dictators? Several bloggers have noted that in his victory speech, Obama said, "I trust the American people to understand that it is not weakness, but wisdom to talk not just to our friends, but to our enemies, like Roosevelt did, and Kennedy did, and Truman did." And they have chuckled, noting that while Adolf Hitler and Franklin Roosevelt exchanged a few letters before the war, Roosevelt's overall message to Hitler was a brief demand for unconditional surrender; after that he let the Arsenal of Democracy do most of the talking. (If that's what Obama has in mind, maybe I've got to reconsider my assessment of him.) As I've noted, all of the dictators who Obama pledges to meet with have, in recent years, met with a Democratic secretary of state (Albright-Kim Jong Il), a Democratic speaker of the House (Pelosi-Assad), a Democratic presidential candidate (okay, Kerry's met with one of Ahmedinijad's predecessors) and a former Democratic president (Jimmy Carter meeting with Chavez and Castro). Since then, we've learned that the Syrians were building a secret nuclear reactor with the help of the North Koreans while Assad met with Pelosi.
And there is a report that next week Interpol will confirm the FARC documents that the Colombian government found in its raid, indicating that Chavez gave money to FARC, and FARC had obtained uranium for a dirty bomb. Have either of these revelations prompted Senator Obama to rethink his I-promise-to-meet stance? "Trust me, Speaker Pelosi. I promise I'm not building a nuclear plant with the North Koreans." UPDATE: Daniel Henninger in the Wall Street Journal today: A grand Enemies Tour awaits President Obama – Iran's Ahmadinejad, Syria's Assad, Venezuela's Hugo Chavez, North Korea's Kim Jong Il, an al Qaeda "diplomat" from Osama bin Laden, Sudan's Hassan al-Bashir, Zimbabwe's Mugabe, Burma's junta. If John McCain can't talk the American people out of re-Carterizing themselves, what has he been preparing for all these years?
05/08 11:59 AM SOMETHING LIGHTER Even I Get Things Wrong Sometimes In a search of the archives, I came across this post from August... Yesterday I said, "goodnight, Senator," and pretty much wrote off Barack Obama's chances of overtaking Hillary Clinton.
Whoops. On the other hand, I did write in June of last year... Yes, McCain could be out by September. He could also get abducted by aliens. I wouldn't bet much on either possibility, though.
05/08 11:54 AM HORSERACE Will We See Tracking Poll Movement Soon? For a woman who's toast, Hillary did pretty well in yesterday's tracking polls... in Gallup, Obama 47, Hillary 46; in Rasmussen, Obama 47, Hillary 43. 05/08 09:55 AM HILLARY CLINTON A Near-President Steps into the Operation Chaos Bear Trap There are many reasons John Kerry should not have been elected in 2004, but we saw another one this week. He is oblivious to the fact that when he suggests Hillary Clinton's win in Indiana is illegitimate, that he is doing exactly what Rush wants. Hillary won, but Obama voters don't think it is a "real" win. Hillary backers resent the Obama campaign for trying to deny that she won. The point of the operation is right there in the name: chaos. We're reaching the point where neither side thinks the other side has legitimately won. Hillary backers will argue that the inane Michigan and Florida rules cheated her out of two big wins. Obama backers don't recognize the Indiana win, and wonder what her margins in Texas, Ohio, and Pennsylvania would have been without Rush.
New orders from headquarters: Rush wants the superdelegates to swing to Obama. Rush also notes that despite the accusations of "tampering," that what Howard Dean and the DNC are doing is "the greatest travesty in the Voting Rights Act since 1965." Indeed, if you are a Michigan or Florida Democrat, somehow you've managed to miss having any say in a race that went all the way to mid-May (if you buy the Hillary is toast argument) or early June. Puerto Ricans will have more say in the race than you do. Democrats abroad had more say in the primary than you did. And unsurprisingly, Rush Limbaugh played a bigger role in picking the Democratic nominee than you did. 05/08 09:25 AM HORSERACE Can Obama Improve His Numbers Among Non-Black Voters? Over at Newsbusters, they run the numbers and determine that in North Carolina, Obama won 34.8 percent of the non-African-American vote; in Indiana, 41.2 percent of the non-African-American vote. In North Carolina, African-Americans made up 40 percent of the Democratic primary vote; in Indiana, 16.8 percent. In 2004, nationally, African-Americans made up about 11 percent of the general election turnout. They split 88-11 in favor of Kerry. 05/08 08:27 AM BARACK OBAMA Time's Cover Says It's All Over Time magazine no longer sees any point in continuing the Democratic primary. A self-fulfilling prophecy for their October 2006 cover? Further confirmation of the theory of Tuesday afternoon...
05/08 08:17 AM Wednesday, May 07, 2008 SOMETHING LIGHTER Not the 'Coalition For a Democratic Workplace' that Pelosi and Reid Had In Mind Via Kaus, a very effective ad (and web site) opposing the Orwellian "Employee Free Choice Act" which would effectively remove the secret ballot for workers deciding whether or not to join a union. Hmmm. Johnny Sack also appeared in the Hillary "Sopranos" parody. 05/07 04:44 PM SOMETHING LIGHTER, JOHN MCCAIN Like Churchill's Pudding, a Theme Is Needed Jen Rubin suggests John McCain needs a theme; he's got positions, but he needs an over-arching, simple, easy to grasp and understand theme. I submit, "Now is the time for all good men to come to the aid of their country."
Messages: This is not a time for spin or usual political bull; the challenges facing the country are great, and in some cases, time is not on our side; the moment is not the time for an untested rookie, we're as big on unity as he is, and our guy is the better man.
No? Well, I still like it better than "The American President Americans have been waiting for."
05/07 02:53 PM HILLARY CLINTON A Rare Bit of Good News For Hillary Today For the past few weeks, I had wondered if each campaign had kept a few ready-to-be-announced super-delegates on ice, to be broken out in case of an emergency.
Today, it feels like the emergency glass has been broken, as Hillary Clinton picks up Rep. Heath Shuler (D. , N.C.) Shuler's office says it was because Hillary won his district. (UPDATE: Shuler pledged he would endorse the winner before yesterday). (This seems a bit arbitrary; couldn't he just as easily justified Obama by claiming he would endorse whoever won the state?) Shuler was part of my list of Ten Super-delegates to Watch. Well, not just him: 9. Assorted red-state Democrats facing reelection. Many prominent red-state Democrats had already endorsed Obama, and Obama’s success in red-state Democratic primaries has been widely discussed. But that was before Rezko went to trial, before Jeremiah Wright came to the mainstream media’s attention, and before the candidate’s wife suggested she had not been proud of America for nearly three decades. The inspirational Obama of the night of the Iowa caucuses is gone now, and the new Obama might be as toxic in heavily conservative states and districts as Hillary. Watch Sen. Mary Landrieu of Louisiana (by far the most endangered Senate Democrat this cycle), Reps. Jim Marshall of Georgia, Nancy Boyda of Kansas, Heath Shuler of North Carolina, Brad Ellsworth of Indiana.
For old time's sake, here's a StopShuler.com ad from the 2006 elections, with Redskins fans imploring the voters in North Carolina to keep him far from Washington D.C... 05/07 01:06 PM HILLARY CLINTON Irony: In the End, Hillary Couldn't Count on George McGovern Why does anybody trust George McGovern? He just turned on Hillary, rescinded his endorsement of her, endorsed Obama, and called on her to leave the race. And he does it after the Clinton family foundation gave $25,000 to support the McGovern Library and Center for Leadership and Public Service in Mitchell, South Dakota in early 2007. Ingrate. Remember the good old days when you could buy a politician, and they would stay bought? 05/07 12:41 PM BARACK OBAMA, HILLARY CLINTON Yesterday May Not Have Been That Terrific For Obama I spoke to a Republican strategist/consultant this morning, asking what he made of Obama's impressive results from last night. After the rough couple of weeks Obama had (Wright, tough debate, losing Pennsylvania, Wright, Wright) I wondered if the Illinois senator really was coated in Teflon... This strategist pointed out a few things to keep in mind. First, Hillary began the primary as the most divisive figure in American politics, with higher negative ratings, and more Americans saying they were certain to not vote for her her, than any other candidate before her. Then her husband went negative on Obama, and alienated African-Americans. While everyone recognizes Obama's had a tough couple of weeks, Hillary's been going through a rough patch of her own, as well. Her "honest and trustworthy" ratings went into the toilet, in the wake of the tale of the Tuzla Dash: "Clinton is viewed as "honest and trustworthy" by just 39 percent of Americans, according to a new poll, compared with 52 percent in May 2006. Nearly six in 10 said in the new poll that she is not honest and trustworthy." Yesterday, in North Carolina, Democrats split on whether she was "honest and trustworthy," 49 percent to 49 percent. In Indiana, Democrats split 54 percent yes, 44 percent no. The press tired of covering the Clinton marriage psychodrama a long time ago and anointed her rival the secular messiah. She can't buy good coverage lately. In campaign advertising, Obama outspent her by a large margin. Her gas tax holiday proposal was a bridge too far for even Paul Krugman. Finally, her bet in the Kentucky Derby died, after coming in second to "Big Brown," thus creating the most heavy-handed political metaphor of the cycle. And yet almost 40 percent of Clinton voters in Indiana yesterday told exit pollsters they would vote for McCain over Obama. White independents in North Carolina split in her favor, 58 percent to 38 percent. This process has driven a wedge between Obama and a certain segment of the Democratic base. He's damaged goods among many of these folks. And while Obama has time, these voters may or may not warm up to him by November. 05/07 12:05 PM HORSERACE Kennedy Went to the 1980 Convention Trailing By 756 Delegates Fun Foreshadowing Fact of the Day: In 1980, Ted Kennedy came into the Democratic convention at Madison Square Garden in New York City with 1,225 delegates to President Carter's 1,981 and 122 uncommitted. If Kennedy could take it to the convention when he trailed by 756 delegates, Hillary can go to the convention trailing by her current 150 or so. 05/07 10:08 AM BARACK OBAMA The Continuing Racial Polarization of the Electorate I was at a party a few weeks back, and talk turned to the presidential race. One guest, an immigrant from Europe, expressed shock and anger that Barack Obama commanded such an overwhelming lead in the African-American vote, contending that these voters were putting skin color above all other factors. Not terribly eager to push against an intractable position, I responded that in this election and past, we've seen many demographic groups vote for the candidate who shares their characteristics— older women voting for Hillary, evangelicals voting for Huckabee, Mormons voting for Romney, veterans voting for McCain — and that this was just more of the same. And voters usually prefer a candidate who is from their geographic location; every candidate usually wins their home state by an overwhelming margin; Illinoisans like Obama, New Yorkers prefer Hillary, Arizonans like McCain, etc. Complaining about voters preferring candidates who share traits with them is like complaining about the weather. African-Americans are free to vote for whoever they like, obviously. But as the primary stretches on, and it becomes clear that overwhelming and monolithic support among African-Americans is putting Obama over the top, I wonder how other voter demographics will react. Obama carried 91 percent of the African-American vote in North Carolina and 90 percent of the African-American vote in Indiana. No other demographic was anywhere near so lopsided in their support; the closest were non-college whites who split 71-26 for Hillary in North Carolina; 65-35 for Hillary in Indiana. (And all of this comes after the Wright mess. Obama stands by Wright in his Philly speech, and African-Americans stand by him. Wright says Obama dealt with the controversy like a politician, and Obama denounces him fully... and it would appear it had no effect on Obama's support among this demographic.) Now look at some of the recent analysis of the race: Thomas Frank, New York Daily News: "With the largest number of remaining delegates now being party insiders, they have to decide if Obama can overcome enough of that antipathy - essentially deciding if enough working-class whites will back away from the black candidate, whether because of the false Muslim rumors, the Rev. Jeremiah Wright flap or old-fashioned racism." Mary Mitchell, Chicago Sun-Times: "For instance, reported on the New York Times blog on Monday was a piece by a reporter who went to a 'mostly white highly educated, professional . . . politically independent' area and found voters were 'unaffected' by the Wright controversy. But the reporter also found that while supporters of both Clinton and Obama said 'they did not think the Wright episode should change the race' they feared it might in other areas where 'people might be searching for some acceptable explanation for not voting for a black candidate.' That's a truth that many will call a lie." Al Hunt, Bloomberg News: "There may have been some element of racism among these culturally conservative voters, who support Democrats if they think the politician is strong and empathetic toward their struggles; Obama appeared neither."
Richard Kim, The Nation: "Are white working-class voters really racist? How many and where? If a significant number of them are, should Democrats really court them on the terms of their racism? These are questions worth asking since, apparently, a lot of Democrats think they're valid. But as long as the Clinton campaign continues to code the fact that it is counting on a base of white racist support, we'll never have this conversation." African-Americans are voting overwhelmingly for a candidate who shares their skin color, but it's being repeatedly suggested that white working-class voters are motivated by racism. Is this the "national conversation on race" that Obama had in mind in his Philly speech?
05/07 09:40 AM BARACK OBAMA, HILLARY CLINTON Why the Belated Attention to 'Operation Chaos'? The name "Rush Limbaugh" is coming up a lot in Team Obama's post-Tuesday spin. "David Axelrod, Obama's top strategist, told reporters that he attributed Clinton's two point lead in Indiana to Rush Limbaugh's "Operation Chaos," where the conservative talk show host urged Republican listeners to vote for Clinton to prolong the Democratic nomination fight." Huffington Post: Limbaugh Effect Seems To Rear Its Head The Los Angeles Times: Rush Limbaugh rules in Democratic race? Now, Operation Chaos has been in effect for several primaries now, starting in Ohio and Texas. Can it be that Team Obama is only noticing it now? Or is that the media has only deemed it a newsworthy story now? Or, in keeping with last night's theory/prediction, Obama's fans in the press need a way to de-legitimize her win in Indiana, and attributing it to Rush is the most convenient way to do it? Rush noted this last night: ''I'm extremely proud of the Operation Chaos volunteers. I never doubted they would triumph in Indiana and I think it is a hoot the Obama campaign is crediting Op Chaos for giving Hillary a 7-point bump. It sounds like they are jealous I out-organized them.'' ''I think it was a couple days after the PA primary, I said on air that if the Obama campaign wanted to end Operation Chaos, all they had to do was acknowledge it and say that the Hillary vote was tainted by voters who have no intention of voting for her in November.'' ''Tonight, they followed my advice.''
05/07 09:26 AM HORSERACE A Grim Morning For Hillary I awaken to find a pretty darn lousy scenario for Hillary Clinton: a 2-point win in Indiana, a 14-point loss in North Carolina.
On CNN right now, the Obama surrogate Joe Andrew is emphasizing that Rush Limbaugh provided the margin of victory for Hillary in Indiana. James Carville looks uncomfortable, and a little irked. He mentions Florida and Michigan obsessively, and says, "you have to run to the nomination, not from the nomination." He argues she may win 6 of the final 7 contests. Not quite easy to see that scenario... I thought South Dakota and Montana were considered more likely to be Obama states. Andrew enjoys using that homespun cliche, "that dog won't hunt." UPDATE: Drudge's caption under a photo of Obama: "THE NOMINEE." Howard Wolfson: "I can't count the number of times pundits have counted out Hillary Clinton..." He acknowledges that Hillary has to do well in the remaining contests, and that (once again) delegations from Florida and Michigan ought to be seated, and seated in a manner that reflects the votes in those states. Any chance for Hillary in Oregon? Three polls since April began, two by SurveyUSA, one by Rasmussen. Obama by 10, Obama by 6, Obama by 12. The problem for her is, she's going to get brutal coverage between now and then. 05/07 08:03 AM Tuesday, May 06, 2008 HORSERACE Indiana, The State That Refused To Be Called Indiana... 82 percent of precincts of reporting, Hillary leads by four percent margin, a little over 40,000 votes ahead. Are the networks worried about Gary, Indiana, finding a huge pile of votes for Obama that puts him over the top? I'm watching Lanny Davis argue on CNN that Barack Obama single-handedly prevented a re-vote in Michigan and Florida. The man raises shameless, audacious spin to a whole new level. "We did not allow Barack Obama to win Indiana tonight." Brazile echoes my point of earlier today — the May 1 31 DNC meeting on the rules will address Michigan and Florida, and that meeting is going to be a huge, huge fight. 10:40 Eastern: Hillary begins her speech. She's not the same woman of two nights ago. Going through the motions, it seems. Bill Clinton looks like he's gotten a lot of sun in the past couple days. There's a guy behind her with the big red boxing gloves, but with results like this, the "fighter" theme doesn't work as well. She swung and missed tonight in North Carolina (a 14 point margin looks better than earlier in the night, but it's still pretty bad) and landed only a glancing blow in Indiana. She underperformed the polls in both states. Tough night for her. UPDATE: Oddity of the night: In North Carolina, 19,876 (so far) voted "no preference" in the Democratic primary. That's about 1 percent. ANOTHER UPDATE: What really crushes Hillary Clinton tonight? Obama's lead in North Carolina is currently about 212,000 votes. That's a huge margin to add onto his current popular vote margin; she's leading Indiana by about 41,000 votes, so if current margins continue, his margin should grow about 171,000 votes. RCP puts his overall popular vote lead at 633,000 votes, without Michigan and Florida. With Michigan and Florida, it was about 10,000 out of 32 million. She'll get a big margin out of West Virginia and Kentucky; he'll make up some ground in Oregon. That leaves Puerto Rico, South Dakota, Montana... YET ANOTHER UPDATE: Evil genius Karl Rove does the back of the envelope calculation, and says that Obama would have to carry Lake County by a 70-30 margin to win the state, which he doesn't think will happen. He does, however, think the vote gets even closer, and so the delegates split evenly or almost perfectly evenly. That's close enough to a win for Obama. Starting tomorrow morning, the cries for Hillary to quit the race from frustrated Democrats and Obama fans in the media (redundant, I know) are going to be deafening. 05/06 10:06 PM | 
